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Oral Comprehensive Examination: Pia Marie C. Salvador

You are all invited to the Oral Comprehensive Examination of Ms. Pia Marie C. Salvador (Professional Masters in Applied Mathematics) on Friday, 3 June 2022, 9:00 AM.

Title: Forecasting Future Health Claims Using An ARIMA Model
Abstract: Health insurance is a type of non-life insurance which provides financial assistance for the whole or a part of the risk of a person insured incurring medical expenses. Predicting future claims can provide insights for better claims management which could mitigate the company’s future losses. In this study, we explore the possibility to develop an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model for short-term forecasting future health insurance claims. The data consists of the total amount of monthly claims from January 2014 to December 2018 of a private health insurance company. An ARIMA (2,1,3) model was fitted to the time series and was validated through diagnostic checking. The ARIMA model provides an out-of-sample forecast for the monthly claims from January 2019 to December 2019. The forecasting accuracy was evaluated to be adequate through the use of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE).

Examination Committee Members:

  • Dr. Jose Maria L. Escaner IV
  • Dr. Sabina Rachel B. Arada
  • Dr. Lu Kevin S. Ong